News & Resources

After a third round of talks made little progress last week, the US/China trade war has escalated badly with tit for tat moves on an almost daily basis by each side. This has seen share markets fall sharply with US, global and Australian shares down about 5-6% from recent highs and safe haven assets like bonds and gold benefiting on the back of worries about the global growth outlook. This note looks at the key issues.

2018-19 saw solid returns for diversified investors, helped by a sharp rise in share markets in the last six months & solid returns from most assets, except cash. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year were to: turn down the noise around investment markets, maintain a well-diversified portfolio; and cash continues to provide low returns.

My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 35 years are that: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; getting markets right is not as easy as you think; investment markets don’t learn; compound interest applied to investments is like magic; it pays to be optimistic; keep it simple; and you need to know yourself to succeed at investing.

Key points >The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. > Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. > More rate cuts are likely to be needed ultimately taking the cash rate to a low of 0.5% next year. Ideally this will be combined with more fiscal stimulus. > For investors it means low interest rates for even longer.

In Australia, new lending standards will continue to affect lending levels which, in turn, will influence property prices and the overall economy. Overall, we are likely to see a slowdown in growth for both the Australian and global economies over the next year. The recent Federal election will have a major influence on the economy as will government spending in the future

The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments that suggest that prices could bottom earlier and higher than we have been expecting. The election outcome removed a key threat, but several other factors also help. This note looks at the key issues.

After taking a back seat over the last six months as negotiations appeared to make progress the US/China trade war is back on with the President Trump – “tariff man” - ramping up tariffs on Chinese imports again and threatening more and China moving to retaliate. This note takes a simple Q & A approach to the key issues.

Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates. But what’s driving low inflation? Is it really that bad? Why not just lower the inflation target? Will rate cuts help?And what does it mean for investors?

Some might be forgiven for thinking the wheels have fallen off Australian politics over the past decade with the same number of PM changes as Italy, a fractured Senate and “minority government” at times making sensible visionary long-term policy making hard. With the May 18 Federal Election offering a starker than normal choice political uncertainty may see another leg up. Polls give Labor a clear lead, albeit it’s narrowed a bit.

Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 22.5%. As a result, unemployment is likely to drift up and wages growth and inflation remain lower for longer. The RBA is on track to cut rates this year and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to underperform global shares.

Globally, Share markets were down during the December 2018 quarter with the Australian share market falling 8.4% and the global share market index dropping 11.1%. Market volatility spiked - to the highest levels last seen in 2016 when the share market was dealing with a sharp decline in commodity prices.

Dividends are great for investors. They augur well for earnings growth, provide a degree of security in uncertain times, are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and provide a relatively stable source of income.

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Five great charts on investing – why they are particularly important now

Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives. Uncertainty around the impact of possible tax changes is likely also impacting investor demand. The housing downturn will be a significant constraint on Australian growth. We expect the RBA to cut the official cash rate to 1% this year.

Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was. Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares. Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets.

Trade wars continued to be a theme during the September 2018 quarter as tensions between the US and China escalated. In July, the US and China levied tariffs of 25% on $34 billion of each other’s exports. This means consumers in the US and China now pay 25% more to buy tariff-affected products from each other.

A few months ago Reserve Bank Governor Phillip Lowe provided four common sense points we should all keep in mind regarding borrowing to finance a home.

Australian capital city home prices have fallen for 12 months in a row and are down 4% from their peak. Most of the weakness relates to the previous boom time cities of Sydney and Melbourne but prices are continuing to fall in Perth and Darwin.

Every so often shares go through rough patches. We saw this most recently around February on the back of US inflation and interest rate concerns and the start of US tariffs which saw US shares and global shares fall roughly 10% and Australian shares fall 6%. Shares mostly recovered – even getting through the seasonally weak months of August and September surprisingly well – with US shares making new records and Australian shares hitting a ten-year high, but the worry list has returned again with US, global shares and Australian shares now down around 7% from their recent high. This note looks at the issues for investors and puts the falls into context.

International share markets experienced major fluctuations during the June quarter owing to ongoing trade-tariff tensions. The Australian economy grew strongly, driven by strong Government spending on infrastructure and increased demand for Australian mining exports.

The key lessons for investors from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) are that: there is always a cycle; while each cycle is different, markets are pushed to extremes of valuation and sentiment; high returns come with higher risk; be sceptical of financial engineering or hard-to-understand products; avoid too much gearing or gearing of the wrong sort; the importance of proper diversification; and the importance of asset allocation.

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast, official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above-trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop, there are five things you should know about the Australian economy.

Investment returns over next five years are likely to slow The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have realistic return expectations; allow that inflation is also low so real returns aren’t down as much; and focus on assets with decent and sustainable income.

For the last two calendar years the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term range around $US0.74 and fell as low as $US0.72 on fears of contagion to global growth from a crisis in Turkey. This note looks at outlook for the $A and why it makes sense for Australian-based investors to hold a decent exposure to foreign exchange.

While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21 months in a row.

Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne likely have more downside, but a crash is unlikely in the absence of much higher mortgage rates, much higher supply and a long continuation of recent high construction activity. Other cities will perform better. Property investors should remain wary of Sydney and Melbourne and focus on laggard or higher yielding markets.

The pullback in shares seen over the last week or two has seen much coverage and generated much concern. This is understandable given the rapid falls in share markets seen on some days.

Although 2017 saw the usual worry list – around President Trump, elections in Europe, China, North Korea and Australian property – it was good for investors. Balanced super funds had returns around 10%, which is pretty good given inflation was around 2%

The Fed hikes again, still gradual but likely to be a bit faster next year – implications for investors and Australia

Review of 2017, outlook for 2018 – still in the “sweet spot” but expect more volatility ahead

Is Australia’s economy “built on shaky foundations” that are “about to collapse”?

Bubbles, busts, investor psychology…and bitcoin

In this issue: Economic outlook, What will Amazon’s entry into Australia mean for Australian property?, Self-employed? Don’t leave your business at risk, Turning threats into opportunities, Financial matters for the over 60s, Fitness for the 21st century

Oliver's Insights The medium term investment return outlook remains constrained.

The Australian economy bounces back again – five reasons why some further pick up is likely and implications for investors

The June quarter saw a battle between geo-politics and economics. The quarter was characterised by healthy gains across the US markets, a tepid performance for the European bourses and strong rises across Asia, with the exception of China’s Shanghai Composite Index.